More Believe Kamala Harris Will Win Election Than Donald Trump: Poll

More Americans think Vice President Kamala Harris will win the U.S. election than former President Donald Trump, a new survey has found.
A YouGov poll conducted on November 4 — the day before the election — asked 6,199 U.S. adults who they thought would win the presidency.
In total, 42 percent of respondents thought Harris would win — 26 percent said she would win by a small margin, while 16 percent thought she would win by a large margin. 36 percent of respondents believed Trump would win, 16 percent by a large margin and 20 percent by a small margin. 21 percent were not sure.
The YouGov poll shows that more Americans in the West of the U.S. believed Harris would win the election by a greater margin, while those in the Northeast more widely believed she would win by a smaller margin.
Repondents in the Midwest and South were the most likely to think Trump would win.
Slightly more men than women believed Harris would win by a small margin, a difference of one percent point.
A greater proportion of men over women believed Trump would win by a small margin, with a difference of five percentage points, while more women were unsure of who would win the election.
More Republicans were also unsure of what the outcome would be on November 5, at 14 percent, while 10 percent of Democrats expressed uncertainty.
Faith in Harris’ ability to win the election has been found to be strong by various surveys. A poll at the end of September by Verasight found that 55 percent of respondents believed Harris would win the election, a figure which was down by one percentage point since the platform’s August poll.
YouGov conducted a similar survey in March of this year, before Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential election cycle in July. At the time, respondents were most likely to believe Trump would claim victory over Biden by a large margin.
In March, there were more Democrats who were unsure of what the outcome of the election would be, compared to the higher number of Republicans feeling uncertain in YouGov’s November poll.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Harris and Trump out of hours via email for comment.
Surveying the American people for their predictions on the outcome of an election, known as “citizen forecasting,” can give a “stronger sense of how the election is turning,” according to the Center for Politics.
Final polls and projections show an extremely tight election. While many give Trump a slight advantage, it’s by a close margin, meaning the race remains neck-and-neck on election day.
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